Terms
Project Success Rate
The project success rate represents the degree of success of the project.
What constitutes a successful project varies from project to project.
In this application, the project success rate is measured by four indicators: quality (Q), cost (C), delivery time (D), and satisfaction (S).
When the project success rate is high, the project's quality, cost, delivery, and satisfaction are all high.
Guide to values
Quality
Scoring guide | Contents |
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100% | The number of failures is much smaller than expected, and a very high quality system can be constructed. |
95%~75% | The number of failures to be within the expectation, and be able to resolve issues without changing the cost or system. |
70%~50% | The number of failures can be over the expectation, but be able to resolve issues without changing the cost or system. |
45%~10% | The number of failures can be over the expectation, cost or system may be revised to improve quality. |
5% | The number of failures can be over the expectation, cost or system may be significantly revised to improve quality. |
Cost
Scoring guide | Contents |
|---|
100% | The investment amount will be less than planned. (Ordering side)
The profit amount exceeds the plan. (Receiving side) |
95%~75% | The investment amount will be as planned. (Ordering side)
The profit amount will be as planned. (Receiving side) |
70%~50% | The upside of the investment amount may be within 25% of the initial estimate. (Ordering side)
The downside of profits may be within 25% of the initial estimate. (Receiving side) |
45%~10% | The upside of the investment amount may be within 50% of the initial estimate. (Ordering side)
The downside of profits may be within 50% of the initial estimate. (Receiving side) |
5% | The upside of the investment amount may exceed 50% of the initial estimate. (Ordering side)
The downside of profits can exceed 50% of the initial estimate. (Receiving side) |
Delivery
Scoring guide | Contents |
|---|
100% | Deliver within the period planned at the start of the project. |
95%~75% | The period planned at the start of the project cab be exceeded, but the delay shall be within 25% of the whole schedule. |
70%~50% | The period planned at the start of the project cab be exceeded, but the delay shall be within 50% of the whole schedule. |
45%~10% | The period planned at the start of the project cab be exceeded, but the delay can be over 50% of the whole schedule. |
5% | It can take more than twice the period planned at the start of the project. |
Satisfaction
Scoring guide | Contents |
|---|
100% | There are no major complaints and there are very few additional requirements after operation. |
95%~75% | The functions assumed before development may not be sufficient, and additional requirements after the acceptance test may occur, but should be resolved by responding through normal changes control process. |
70%~50% | The functions assumed before development may not be sufficient, and additional requirements after the acceptance test may occur more than expected, but should be managed and resolved. |
45%~10% | The functions assumed before development are not sufficient, and additional requirements after the acceptance test occur more than expected, causing confusion. |
5% | Customers or users are very dissatisfied and the service was postponed or suspended after the Go-Live. |
How to read the forecast results
Success Rate Forecasted by AI
This is the project success rate forecast by AI.
AI forecasts the success rate in terms of a probability distribution. The average value of the distribution is displayed as Success Rate Forecasted by AI.
The probability distribution can be found in the "Details" section.
The Success Rate Forecasted by AI is NOT the probability that the project will succeed. Please see the glossary above for the meaning of a project success rate.
Goals You Set
This is the average of the target success rate entered in questions 21-24.
Probability of exceeding the goals
It represents the probability that the success rate of the project will exceed the "Goals You Set" as calculated based on AI forecasts.
It corresponds to the area of the red-colored portion of the graph in the "Details" section.
Judgment Result
Projects are judged on a 5-point scale from A to E, depending on the value of "Probability of exceeding the goals"
Even if the AI predicted success rate is high, the judgment may be low if the “Goals You Set” are high. The reverse is also true.
Q&A
The forecasted success rate is low. What can we do to make the project more successful?
Review the questions and your answers, and improve your situation.
Even if you are not able to make a change, be aware that your project is at risk and prepare to follow up when you face a problem.
I have done a success rate forecast, but my situation changed.
Can I edit my answers and get the result based on the current situation?
This app forecasts the project success rate based on the situation at the start of the project.
You can edit your answers, but the logic of the app does not support a forecast based on situation changes.
Can I forecast the success rate of a project under progress?
You can, but please answer the questions based on the situation at the start of the project.
Why do I have a high (low) forecasting success rate but a low (high) judgment result?
The judgment result depends on the value of the "Probability of exceeding the goals".
Even if the forecasted success rate is high, the judgment result can be low if the target is high. The reverse is also true.
